IdeaToola recheck of latest annual reports / results decks, October 2026. Partial and unconfirmed excluded.
| Series | Digitally active clients | Ecosystem income | Distribution network | Digital credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Source: IdeaToola analysis of each bank's latest primary-source results (see references and matrix).
VerifiedKey Findings
- 1We checked 25 African banks against their latest primary-source results (H1 2025 to FY2026). Only 5 of 25 quantify at least one of the four commercial digital metrics we tested in those documents.
- 2Digital activation: only 3 of 25 — Capitec (15.3m of 25.8m, 59%), Absa Group (5.4m of 13.1m, 41%) and TymeBank (3.7m of 11.3m, 33%) — report digitally active clients separately from total clients. A further 8 give a proxy such as total active or registered users.
- 3Digital credit: only 1 of 25 quantifies digital lending in its results — NCBA, which disbursed KES 646bn in digital loans in H1 2025 (+35%). The most evidenced digital revenue model on the continent is credit, delivered through a telco partner.
- 4Distribution: only 1 of 25 quantifies an external distribution network in its results — Co-operative Bank of Kenya's 16,055 agents. 7 more describe agent, retailer or telco partnerships without sizing them.
- 5Architecture and launch speed: no bank publishes time-to-market data, and we found no independent study for these banks. We do not make that claim.
How We Did This
We selected 25 banks covering Africa's largest retail banking markets — South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt, Tanzania, Morocco and the pan-African groups — and, in October 2026, rechecked each against its latest primary-source document: annual report, results presentation, or exchange filing (JSE SENS, NGX, AMMC). Periods range from H1 2025 to FY2026 because year-ends differ.
Each bank was rated on four questions: (1) does it quantify an external distribution network — agents, telcos or merchants? (2) does it report digitally active clients separately from total clients? (3) does it quantify digital lending — disbursements or book? (4) does it separately report non-bank ecosystem income — insurance, telco, asset management, lifestyle?
Verified means the document states a figure. Partial means it describes the activity or gives a proxy. Unconfirmed means we did not find it in the document — *not* that the bank does not do it. Equity, and M-Pesa partnerships, for example, are widely known; what we are measuring is what banks put in their results.
Limitations: some long reports were reviewed through their results sections and presentation slides rather than every page; press releases outside the results documents are noted but do not count as Verified. We will update ratings if a bank points us to a figure we missed.
1. The Disclosure Gap Is the Headline
We set out to count which banks do what. The more important finding is what they *report*. Across 100 bank-by-metric checks, only 8 are Verified in primary results. Most banks headline deposits, loans and profit — and describe digital in narrative without the figure.
That matters commercially. If the board pack shows registrations and transaction volumes, the organisation optimises for activity. Six of the banks we checked — , Zenith, FirstBank, , and Absa Kenya among the least specific — give investors no digital metric we could rate Verified at all.
Banks that describe the activity or give a proxy figure, but do not size it directly.
| Series | Digitally active clients | Ecosystem income | Distribution network | Digital credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 8 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
Source: IdeaToola analysis of primary-source results. Partial = described or proxied, not quantified.
VerifiedThe 25-Bank Evidence Matrix
| Bank | Period | Distribution | Digital activation | Digital credit | Ecosystem | Key evidence | Document |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitec | FY to Feb 2026 | Partial | Verified | Partial | Verified | 15.3m active app clients vs 25.8m active clients; VAS + Capitec Connect income R6.1bn (+38%). | Capitec FY2026 audited summary |
| FNB (FirstRand) | FY to Jun 2025 | Partial | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | AgencyPlus agent stores and FNB Connect retail distribution announced outside the results booklet. | FirstRand Analysis of Results Jun 2025 |
| Standard Bank | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Partial | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 4.5m digitally active SA retail clients — in a Sept 2025 press release, not the results PDF. | SBG 2025 Annual Results Announcement |
| Absa Group | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Verified | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 5.4m digitally active customers vs 13.1m active customers, stated separately. | Absa FY2025 SENS announcement |
| Nedbank | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Partial | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 9% growth in active clients (PPB) — not labelled digital. | Nedbank 2025 Annual Results Booklet |
| TymeBank | FY to Jun 2025 | Partial | Verified | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 3.7m active customers of 11.3m total; retail-kiosk model described but not quantified. | TymeBank Basel Pillar III, Jun 2025 |
| Discovery Bank | FY to Jun 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Partial | Group non-insurance income R6.6bn (+12%) — group-level, not bank-specific. | Discovery FY2025 audited results |
| African Bank | FY to Sep 2025 | Partial | Partial | Unconfirmed | Partial | 6.3m active customers (not digital-specific); 'Alliance Banking' retail partnerships as strategy. | African Bank FY2025 results presentation |
| Equity Group | H1 to Jun 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Partial | Insurance and healthcare cited as diversified revenue; not separately quantified in excerpts. | Equity HY2025 investor briefing |
| KCB Group | H1 to Jun 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Only aggregate loans and non-interest income in interim statements reviewed. | KCB H1 2025 interim statements |
| NCBA | FY to Dec 2025 | Partial | Partial | Verified | Verified | KES 646bn digital loans disbursed in H1 2025 (+35%); KES 1tn+ across Africa; subsidiaries 15% of PBT. | NCBA FY2025 & H1 2025 investor decks |
| Co-operative Bank | H1 to Jun 2025 | Verified | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Verified | 16,055 Co-op Kwa Jirani agents + 619 Sacco front offices; FUM KES 461.7bn. | Co-op Bank H1 2025 investor presentation |
| Absa Kenya | H1 to Jun 2025 | Partial | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Partial | Payments/diaspora partnerships named; bancassurance and asset-management growth directional only. | Absa Kenya H1 2025 results |
| CRDB | H1 to Jun 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Partial | Non-interest income +38% — banking fees, not a separate ecosystem line. | CRDB 2Q25 results presentation |
| NMB | H1 to Jun 2025 | Unconfirmed | Partial | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 9.2m customers (total, not digital-active). | NMB Q2 2025 investor presentation |
| Ecobank | H1 to Jun 2025 | Unconfirmed | Partial | Unconfirmed | Partial | 12.8m active of 19.3m consumers (not digital-specific); payments revenue $141m. | ETI HY2025 results release |
| Access Holdings | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Partial | Partial | Oxygen X subsidiary: ₦19bn+ loan value; fee income ₦585bn (+41%), not segmented. | Access Holdings FY2025 earnings presentation |
| GTCO | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Partial | Payments, pensions and funds verticals reported; income split not found. | GTCO FY2025 investor presentation |
| Zenith Bank | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Gross loans ₦11.06tn — no digital segmentation found. | Zenith FY2025 annual report |
| UBA | FY to Dec 2025 | Partial | Partial | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 430,000 POS terminals deployed; 44.8m digital banking customers (registered, not stated as active). | UBA FY2025 investor presentation |
| FirstBank (First HoldCo) | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Digital section exists; FirstMonie agent figures not captured in reviewed pages. | First HoldCo 2025 annual report |
| Stanbic IBTC | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Partial | Insurance & Asset Management reported as a separate segment. | Stanbic IBTC FY2025 financial statements |
| CIB Egypt | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 2m retail clients; no digital-specific metrics found. | CIB 2025 annual report |
| National Bank of Egypt | H1 to Jun 2025 | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | No current annual report located; only H1 2025 separate financial statements. | NBE H1 2025 financial statements |
| Attijariwafa | FY to Dec 2025 | Unconfirmed | Partial | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 444m digital connections; 94.4% of transactions digital — usage, not a client count. | Attijariwafa FY2025 results communiqué |
Verified = figure stated in the primary results document; Partial = described or proxied; Unconfirmed = not found in that document (not proof of absence).
Source: IdeaToola recheck, October 2026. Full document links in the references.
Verified25 banks × 4 metrics. Counts of evidence classifications, not a ranking of bank capability. Reviewed October 2026; report periods H1 2025–FY2026.
| Series | Verified | Partial | Unconfirmed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 8 | 26 | 66 |
Source: Derived by IdeaToola from the 25-bank evidence matrix and cited results documents. Unconfirmed means not found in the material reviewed, not that the activity is absent.
2. Engagement Is Not Activation
Where banks do report digitally active clients, the numbers show how far registrations overstate reach.
Capitec's audited FY2026 results report 15.3m active app clients against 25.8m active clients — roughly 59%. reports 5.4m digitally active against 13.1m active customers (about 41%). TymeBank's Pillar III disclosure shows 3.7m active customers out of a base of about 11.3m — a reminder that even a digital-only bank has a large inactive tail.
Others give figures that look similar but aren't: reports 44.8m "digital banking customers" without saying how many are active; Ecobank reports 12.8m active consumers without isolating digital; Attijariwafa reports 444m digital connections and a 94.4% digital share of transactions — usage, not clients.
Only banks that disclose both figures in primary results. Values in %. TymeBank uses active ÷ total customers.
| Series | Capitec (FY26) | Absa Group (FY25) | TymeBank (FY25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 59 | 41 | 33 |
Source: Capitec FY2026 audited summary; Absa FY2025 SENS; TymeBank Pillar III Jun 2025. Ratios derived by IdeaToola.
VerifiedThe metric that matters
Replace "digital users" with "revenue per digitally active client" versus "revenue per branch-only client". None of the 25 banks publishes that comparison.
3. Digital Credit: One Bank Shows the Numbers
Transaction fees are under pressure from instant payment schemes — PayShap in South Africa, NIP in Nigeria, InstaPay in Egypt. The banks that can build durable digital revenue are those turning transaction data into credit decisions.
Only quantifies this in its results: KES 646bn in digital loans disbursed in H1 2025, up 35%, and more than KES 1tn disbursed across Africa — largely through M-Shwari and Fuliza with Safaricom. That is distribution and credit working together: the telco supplies reach, the bank supplies the balance sheet and the decisioning.
Capitec (AvaFin online lending) and (Oxygen X, ₦19bn+ loan value) disclose digital lending subsidiaries without a group-wide digital book. Every other bank reports only total loans. Given the 's digital credit provider rules and tightening elsewhere, investors should expect — and ask for — more.
"The app collects the data. Credit is where that data earns a return."
— IdeaToola Intelligence
4. Distribution: Visible in Strategy, Rarely Sized in Results
Distribution partnerships run through many of these banks' strategies, but few size them in results. is the clear exception: 16,055 Co-op Kwa Jirani agents and 619 Sacco front offices.
Others describe the model without the number: FNB's AgencyPlus agent stores and FNB Connect retail distribution; TymeBank's retail kiosks; 's "Alliance Banking" partnerships; 's 430,000 POS terminals; 's Safaricom-linked lending. We rate these Partial. Own branches and ATMs — however large, like Attijariwafa's 5,593 Moroccan branches — are not counted as external distribution.
5. Ecosystem Income: Concentrated and Lightly Reported
Three banks separately quantify income beyond core banking: Capitec (value-added services and Capitec Connect, R6.1bn, +38%), (non-bank subsidiaries 15% of group profit before tax) and (funds under management KES 461.7bn, plus insurance, brokerage and leasing lines).
Many more mention insurance, asset management or payments verticals — Discovery, , , Ecobank, Absa Kenya — without breaking out the income. Ecosystem revenue is attractive because it is fee income not tied to the rate cycle, but it can only be judged if it is reported.
6. Architecture and Launch Speed: Not Proven
We set out to test whether banks on unified platforms with an API layer launch products faster. Several describe cloud and API programmes, but none publishes comparable time-to-market data, and we found no independent study covering these banks. The claim is plausible; we cannot evidence it, so we do not make it.
The Takeaway
Stop asking "how many users are on our app?" Start asking: what does a digitally activated client actually earn us — and through which distribution partner did we reach them?
For bank executives that means three changes: report digitally active clients, not registrations; size agent, telco and merchant channels in the results, not just the strategy slides; and disclose digital credit volumes and losses. The banks that already do — Capitec, Absa, , Co-op — are the ones investors can actually value on digital.
So What? — Strategic Implications
What decision-makers should do about it
Banks should double down on SME lending via straight-through-processing channels to capture underserved segments before fintechs do.
Invest in API-first core-banking modernisation — legacy systems are the single biggest barrier to competitive pricing.
Prioritise digital onboarding journeys: every friction point in account opening costs ~12% of potential deposits.
Strategic recommendations based on IdeaToola Research analysis. Not financial advice.
Predictive Outlook — What Happens Next
Forward-looking analysis · 2026–2031 trajectory
What Happens Next
By 2028, 60% of African bank revenue will come from digital channels — branches become advisory-only.
Embedded finance partnerships will replace 30% of traditional lending products within 3 years.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will force banks to rethink their payments infrastructure by 2027.
Scenario Modeling
If real-time payment rails (like Pix) launch across Africa
Card-based revenue drops 40%, but transaction volume triples — banks that own the rails win.
If big tech (Google, Apple) enters African banking
Customer acquisition costs for traditional banks double. Differentiation shifts to trust and advisory.
If pan-African banking licenses become standardised
Top 5 banks expand to 15+ markets within 2 years. Regional champions emerge.
Trend Trajectories · 2026–2031
Digital transaction share
85% (from 35% today)
Branch density per 100K
3.2 (from 5.8 today)
Cost-to-income ratio
48% (from 65% today)
SME digital lending volume
$45B (from $12B today)
Build the Strategy
Turn these predictions into action. Our execution playbooks provide step-by-step frameworks with timelines, owners, and KPIs.
How to Scale SME Acquisition Digitally (Africa Edition)
Banking · Advanced · 12-week sprint
Reducing Cost-to-Serve in African Banking
Banking · Starter · 8-week sprint
Forward-looking projections based on current market trajectories, institutional research, and IdeaStack analysis. Scenarios represent possible futures, not predictions. Actual outcomes may vary based on regulatory, economic, and technological factors.
Untapped Market Opportunities
Commercial Rooftop Solar
South Africa has 420M m² of underutilised commercial rooftop space. Current 1.2GW installed could grow 6× with wheeling framework maturity.
< 5% of commercial rooftops utilised
R28B
Source: DMRE & GreenCape Market Intelligence Report, 2025
SME Embedded Lending
Embedded lending APIs integrated into accounting platforms could unlock a massive underserved segment with 94% of SMEs relying on informal financing.
Only 6% of SA SMEs have formal credit access
R42B
Source: SARB & FinMark Trust FinScope SME Survey, 2024
Digital Freight Matching
AI-powered load matching across SA's 280,000 trucks could eliminate R14B in wasted capacity annually.
38% of trucks return empty
R14B
Source: Transnet & Road Freight Association, 2024
Ratings and debt metrics reflect latest publicly available data (2025–2026), with some countries undergoing active restructuring. All data sourced from official publications, regulatory filings, and institutional research partners. Figures are indicative and may be subject to revision. Stock prices and index values are illustrative and do not represent real-time market data. IdeaToola does not provide financial advice. Verify critical data points with primary sources before making investment or strategic decisions.
