Naledi Sithole

Nigerian retail basket size +18% YoY in NGN, -6% in USD, frequency -11%. Consumers making fewer, bigger, more-planned trips. Winners will be operators built for planned-basket economics — not impulse formats.

Pan-African FMCG gross margins compressed another 210bps this half — 4th consecutive half of compression. Pricing power now concentrated in 6 mega-brands. Private label is finally viable at continental scale.

Shoprite's Nigeria exit crystallised the lesson: pan-African retail is hub-and-spoke, not footprint. The economics of a 200-store network across 8 markets never worked. Focused density beats geographic spread.

Naivas Kenya sales per sqm now 1.7x the Kenyan supermarket average — the format most regional operators are quietly reverse-engineering. Local-first assortment + tight working capital cycle is the whole playbook.

African QSR: winners have >70% local supply chain by cost. KFC South Africa at 84%, Chicken Republic Nigeria at 78%. Menus localise late; supply chains have to localise first. Chain unit economics live or die on this ratio.

African informal retail B2B distribution TAM: $180bn+. TradeDepot, Sabi, Wasoko processed a combined ~$6.4bn TTM — <4% penetration. Largest under-monetised infrastructure story on the continent.

Pick n Pay's turnaround plan is priced for failure at 0.4x FY26 sales. If Boxer scales at guided 12%/yr the sum-of-parts is 40% above spot. The market is short optionality it shouldn't be.

African e-commerce penetration ex-South Africa remains <2.5% of retail vs SE Asia 12%. The infrastructure gap (payments, last-mile, trust) is closing at 40-60bps/year. Slow compounding, decisive endpoint.