Kojo Mensah

GhIPSS MoMo interop transactions +47% YoY, merchant-initiated share now 31% vs 18% a year ago. The wallet-to-till use case has finally clicked. Acquiring economics next in line to re-rate.

Absa Ghana digital transaction ratio closed to 84% of Big-3 average, from 71% two years ago. Catch-up running at ~6.5pts/yr — parity by FY27 on current trajectory. The valuation gap doesn't reflect this.

Cedi held in a 12.10-12.40/USD band for 5 months — first period of sub-3% quarterly vol since 2022. Consumer credit demand up 28% YoY on the stability alone. Policy did less than the market gave it credit for.

Fidelity Bank Ghana SME book +22% YoY at 4.1% NPL vs sector 12.8%. The underwriting delta is real, not vintage-flattered. Mid-market is where the next 3 years of Ghanaian banking alpha lives.

E-levy collected GHS 1.2bn TTM vs Treasury target GHS 4.5bn — a 73% undershoot. Behavioural elasticity to transaction tax is far higher than modelled. Every African finance ministry should file this away.

MTN MoMo Ghana crossed 15m 30-day actives — ~48% of adult population. The saturation curve is flattening; growth from here comes from ARPU, not accounts. Product mix shifts to credit and merchant.

Ghana T-bill yields fell 400bps in 6 months — the fastest rate compression in West Africa. Domestic bank NIMs will print 90-120bps lower in FY27. Trading gains offset for now; run-rate earnings do not.