Wanjiru Kamau

Equity Group's regional book: 38.2% of assets, contributing 43% of PBT this half. Kenya-only banks now trade at a 1.4x P/B discount to the pan-African players. The re-rating gap is the diversification premium, made visible.

CBK's revised wallet float rules take effect Q1 27 — expect 60-90bps of compression on mobile money take-rates. Safaricom's M-Pesa margin cushion is thicker than peers; read-across to Airtel Money is negative.

M-Pesa interoperability lifted Tanzania's monthly active wallet count 22% YoY. Rwanda still at 41% penetration vs Kenya's 84% — the gap is regulatory friction, not consumer demand.

KCB's DRC subsidiary contributed 14% of group PBT this half — up from 4% two years ago. Trust Merchant Bank is now the highest-ROE unit in the group. Regional M&A math works when the target has scale.

Safaricom Ethiopia: 8.1m subscribers at end-H1, ARPU $1.20 vs guidance $0.90. The J-curve bottomed 6 months early. Ethiopia now covers ~65% of its cash burn — full profitability plausible by FY28.

Kenya's fintech sandbox produced 3 licensed exits this quarter — all SME lending. Cohort default rates trending 4.2% vs incumbent bank SME books at 8.1%. Data + narrow underwriting is beating branch relationships.

Kenyan bank sector loan growth 6.8% YoY vs deposit growth 11.2% — liquidity is building, not deploying. Either credit demand is weaker than headlines or risk appetite has re-rated. Both bearish for NIMs.

M-Pesa merchant payments now 34% of TPV vs 22% two years ago. The mix shift into merchant is the real margin story — P2P is the loss-leader, merchant is the profit pool.

NCBA's regional franchise added 1.1m new digital loans this quarter at an average ticket of KES 6,200. Fuliza economics remain the highest-ROA product in East African banking.