Brian Otieno

EA mobile money penetration: Kenya 84%, Tanzania 61%, Uganda 58%, Rwanda 41%. Kenya-Rwanda gap widened 3pts this year despite interoperability. Regulatory friction, not consumer demand, is the binding constraint.

EA SME lending default rates converged to a 5.8-7.2% band across the top 6 lenders — from an 11pt spread two years ago. Pricing discipline arrived; alpha shifts from credit selection to distribution cost.

Uganda's digital tax stamp captured UGX 1.4trn in incremental excise TTM at ~7% implementation cost. Best fintech-adjacent policy ROI on the continent. Nigeria and Kenya are quietly benchmarking.

Rwanda cashless transactions hit 74% of retail spend vs 41% two years ago — the fastest transition curve in Africa. The merchant behaviour dataset generated is now the region's most valuable analytical asset.

Tanzania top-5 bank concentration rose from 58% to 64% in 18 months as two mergers cleared. Consolidation is under-covered because the tickets are small; the strategic implication for cross-border franchises is not.

KCB, Equity and NCBA now derive a combined 38% of PBT from outside Kenya vs 21% four years ago. The 'Kenyan bank' framing is stale — these are pan-EA franchises trading at Kenyan multiples.

Cross-border EA trade volumes on TradeNet up 34% YoY. The single-window customs infrastructure is quietly compounding the AfCFTA benefit. Nairobi-Kampala corridor lead times down from 5 days to 32 hours.