Buy Now Pay Later: SA's R28B Credit Revolution and the Regulatory Reckoning

What This Means for Decision-Makers

• →PayJustNow (acquired by Wesfarmers in 2024) processes R9.8B in annual GMV across 8,200 merchant partners including Superbalist, Takealot, and Woolworths. Float (Naspers-backed) grew 120% YoY by targeting the 18–28 demographic with instant approval via bank statement analysis. MoreTyme (TymeBank's BNPL arm) has the highest default rate at 9.4% — reflecting its strategy of serving underbanked consumers. Source: PayJustNow, Float, TymeBank, TransUnion
• →42% of BNPL users are Gen Z — and 58% say they use BNPL because they don't qualify for traditional credit cards. The average BNPL order value is R1,850 split over 3–4 instalments. Superbalist reports that BNPL orders have a 28% higher average basket than card payments. Critically, 23% of BNPL users have 3+ active BNPL commitments simultaneously — a debt stacking risk the FSCA has flagged. Source: TransUnion, Superbalist, FSCA
• →BNPL's zero-interest model shifts revenue to merchant fees (3–6% of GMV) and late payment penalties. The FSCA found that 34% of BNPL revenue comes from late fees — raising consumer protection concerns. Unlike credit cards, BNPL transactions are not yet reported to credit bureaus in SA, creating blind spots in affordability assessments. The NCR has proposed mandatory credit bureau reporting for all BNPL transactions exceeding R500 by Q3 2026. Source: FSCA, NCR, TransUnion
• →McKinsey projects the SA BNPL market will reach R52B by 2028 but regulation will cause a 20–30% volume contraction in 2026–2027 as providers implement mandatory affordability checks. All Big 5 banks are expected to launch competing BNPL products by 2027 — Nedbank and FNB already offer instalment options at checkout. The market will consolidate to 3 major players as smaller providers can't absorb the compliance costs. Embedded BNPL (built into banking apps) will capture 45% of the market by 2030. Source: McKinsey, FSCA, NCR, Nedbank